4 resultados para Sensitivity analysis

em CORA - Cork Open Research Archive - University College Cork - Ireland


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There has been an increased use of the Doubly-Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) in ac drive applications in recent times, particularly in the field of renewable energy systems and other high power variable-speed drives. The DFIM is widely regarded as the optimal generation system for both onshore and offshore wind turbines and has also been considered in wave power applications. Wind power generation is the most mature renewable technology. However, wave energy has attracted a large interest recently as the potential for power extraction is very significant. Various wave energy converter (WEC) technologies currently exist with the oscillating water column (OWC) type converter being one of the most advanced. There are fundemental differences in the power profile of the pneumatic power supplied by the OWC WEC and that of a wind turbine and this causes significant challenges in the selection and rating of electrical generators for the OWC devises. The thesis initially aims to provide an accurate per-phase equivalent circuit model of the DFIM by investigating various characterisation testing procedures. Novel testing methodologies based on the series-coupling tests is employed and is found to provide a more accurate representation of the DFIM than the standard IEEE testing methods because the series-coupling tests provide a direct method of determining the equivalent-circuit resistances and inductances of the machine. A second novel method known as the extended short-circuit test is also presented and investigated as an alternative characterisation method. Experimental results on a 1.1 kW DFIM and a 30 kW DFIM utilising the various characterisation procedures are presented in the thesis. The various test methods are analysed and validated through comparison of model predictions and torque-versus-speed curves for each induction machine. Sensitivity analysis is also used as a means of quantifying the effect of experimental error on the results taken from each of the testing procedures and is used to determine the suitability of the test procedures for characterising each of the devices. The series-coupling differential test is demonstrated to be the optimum test. The research then focuses on the OWC WEC and the modelling of this device. A software model is implemented based on data obtained from a scaled prototype device situated at the Irish test site. Test data from the electrical system of the device is analysed and this data is used to develop a performance curve for the air turbine utilised in the WEC. This performance curve was applied in a software model to represent the turbine in the electro-mechanical system and the software results are validated by the measured electrical output data from the prototype test device. Finally, once both the DFIM and OWC WEC power take-off system have been modeled succesfully, an investigation of the application of the DFIM to the OWC WEC model is carried out to determine the electrical machine rating required for the pulsating power derived from OWC WEC device. Thermal analysis of a 30 kW induction machine is carried out using a first-order thermal model. The simulations quantify the limits of operation of the machine and enable thedevelopment of rating requirements for the electrical generation system of the OWC WEC. The thesis can be considered to have three sections. The first section of the thesis contains Chapters 2 and 3 and focuses on the accurate characterisation of the doubly-fed induction machine using various testing procedures. The second section, containing Chapter 4, concentrates on the modelling of the OWC WEC power-takeoff with particular focus on the Wells turbine. Validation of this model is carried out through comparision of simulations and experimental measurements. The third section of the thesis utilises the OWC WEC model from Chapter 4 with a 30 kW induction machine model to determine the optimum device rating for the specified machine. Simulations are carried out to perform thermal analysis of the machine to give a general insight into electrical machine rating for an OWC WEC device.

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Background: Elective repeat caesarean delivery (ERCD) rates have been increasing worldwide, thus prompting obstetric discourse on the risks and benefits for the mother and infant. Yet, these increasing rates also have major economic implications for the health care system. Given the dearth of information on the cost-effectiveness related to mode of delivery, the aim of this paper was to perform an economic evaluation on the costs and short-term maternal health consequences associated with a trial of labour after one previous caesarean delivery compared with ERCD for low risk women in Ireland.Methods: Using a decision analytic model, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was performed where the measure of health gain was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a six-week time horizon. A review of international literature was conducted to derive representative estimates of adverse maternal health outcomes following a trial of labour after caesarean (TOLAC) and ERCD. Delivery/procedure costs derived from primary data collection and combined both "bottom-up" and "top-down" costing estimations.Results: Maternal morbidities emerged in twice as many cases in the TOLAC group than the ERCD group. However, a TOLAC was found to be the most-effective method of delivery because it was substantially less expensive than ERCD ((sic)1,835.06 versus (sic)4,039.87 per women, respectively), and QALYs were modestly higher (0.84 versus 0.70). Our findings were supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Conclusions: Clinicians need to be well informed of the benefits and risks of TOLAC among low risk women. Ideally, clinician-patient discourse would address differences in length of hospital stay and postpartum recovery time. While it is premature advocate a policy of TOLAC across maternity units, the results of the study prompt further analysis and repeat iterations, encouraging future studies to synthesis previous research and new and relevant evidence under a single comprehensive decision model.

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Introduction The concept of this thesis was driven by stagnation within the Irish healthcare system. Multiple reports from pharmacy organisations had outlined possible future directions for the profession but progress was minimal, especially in comparison with other countries. The author’s directive was to evaluate the economic impact of a series of clinical pharmacy services (CPS) in hospital and community settings. Methods A systematic review of economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in hospital patients was undertaken to gain insight into recent research in the field. Eligible studies were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS), to establish the quality, consistency and transparency of relevant research. A retrospective analysis of an internal hospital pharmacy interventions database was conducted. A method first described by Nesbit et al. was implemented to estimate the level of cost avoidance achieved. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from a randomised controlled trial of a pharmacist-supervised patient self-testing (PST) of warfarin therapy is presented. Outcome measure was the incremental cost associated with six months of intervention management. A similar cost-effectiveness analysis based on previously published RCT data was used to evaluate a novel structured pharmacist review of medication in older hospitalised patients. Cost-effectiveness analysis was presented in the form of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). An ICER is an additional cost per unit effect, in the case of this study, the cost of preventing an additional non-trivial ADR in hospital. A method described by Preaud et al. was adapted to estimate the clinical and economic benefit gained from vaccination of patients by a community pharmacist in Ireland in 2013/14. Sample demographic data was obtained from a national chain of community pharmacies and applied to overall national vaccination data. Results Systematic review identified twenty studies which were eligible for inclusion. Overall, pharmacist interventions had a positive impact on hospital budgets. Only three studies (15%) were deemed to be “good-quality” studies. No ‘novel’ clinical pharmacist intervention was identified during the course of this review. Analysis of internal hospital database identified 4,257 interventions documented on 2,147 individual patients over a 12 month period. Substantial cost avoidance of €710,000 was generated over a 1 year period from the perspective of the health care provider. Mean cost avoidance of €166 per intervention was generated. The cost of providing these interventions was €82,000. Substantial net cost-benefits of €626,279 and a cost-benefit ratio of 8.64 : 1 were generated based on this evaluation of pharmacist interventions. Results from an evaluation of a novel pharmacist-led form of warfarin management indicated indicated that on a per patient basis, PST was slightly more expensive than established anticoagulant management. On a per patient basis over a six month period, PST resulted in an incremental cost of €59.08 in comparison with routine care. Overall cost of managing a patient through pharmacist-supervised PST for a six month period is €226.45. However, for this increase in cost a clinically significant improvement in care was provided. Patients achieved a significantly higher time in therapeutic range during the PST arm in comparison with routine care, (72 ± 19.7% vs 59 ± 13.5%). Difference in overall cost was minimal and PST was the dominant strategy in some scenarios examined during sensitivity analysis. Structured pharmacist review of medication was determined to be dominant in comparison to usual pharmaceutical care. Even if the healthcare payer was unwilling to pay any money for the prevention of an ADR, the intervention strategy is still likely to be cost-effective (probability of being determined cost-effective = 0.707). Implementation of pharmacist-led influenza vaccination has resulted in substantial clinical and economic benefits to the healthcare system. The majority of patients (64.9%) who availed of this service had identifiable influenza-related risk factors. Of patients with influenza-related risk factors, age ≥65 year was the most commonly cited risk factor. Pharmacist vaccination services averted a total of 848 influenza cases across all age groups during the 2013/2014 influenza season. Due to receipt of vaccination in a pharmacy setting, 444 influenza-related GP visits were prevented. In terms of more serious influenza-associated events, 11 hospitalisations and five influenza-related deaths were averted. Costs averted were approximately €305,000. These were principally wider societal-related costs associated with lost productivity. Conclusion Overall, clinical pharmacy services are adding value to the Irish healthcare system in both hospital and community settings, but provision of additional funding for new services would enable them to offer a great deal more.

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This study aimed to investigate the effects of sex and deprivation on participation in a population-based faecal immunochemical test (FIT) colorectal cancer screening programme. The study population included 9785 individuals invited to participate in two rounds of a population-based biennial FIT-based screening programme, in a relatively deprived area of Dublin, Ireland. Explanatory variables included in the analysis were sex, deprivation category of area of residence and age (at end of screening). The primary outcome variable modelled was participation status in both rounds combined (with “participation” defined as having taken part in either or both rounds of screening). Poisson regression with a log link and robust error variance was used to estimate relative risks (RR) for participation. As a sensitivity analysis, data were stratified by screening round. In both the univariable and multivariable models deprivation was strongly associated with participation. Increasing affluence was associated with higher participation; participation was 26% higher in people resident in the most affluent compared to the most deprived areas (multivariable RR = 1.26: 95% CI 1.21–1.30). Participation was significantly lower in males (multivariable RR = 0.96: 95%CI 0.95–0.97) and generally increased with increasing age (trend per age group, multivariable RR = 1.02: 95%CI, 1.01–1.02). No significant interactions between the explanatory variables were found. The effects of deprivation and sex were similar by screening round. Deprivation and male gender are independently associated with lower uptake of population-based FIT colorectal cancer screening, even in a relatively deprived setting. Development of evidence-based interventions to increase uptake in these disadvantaged groups is urgently required.